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System
Dynamics
is a methodology for analyzing complex
systems and problems with the
aid of computer modeling and simulation software. it was
formulated by
Jay Forrester in the 1960s at M.I.T. he
was a professor in M.I.T.'s
Sloan School of Management, and
became interested in
the complexity of business management
and other factors affecting business
either to succeed or to fail. |
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He concluded that the
people are not well prepared
when dealing with complex systems in which
many factors influence outcome results, the success
of many business may depend upon the employees,
consumers, location, transportation,
communication and the economy,
also it could depend upon unexpected
events such as unstable weather conditions
in agricultural products and fluctuation
of the power supply in food
industry. |
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Forster noticed that the people usually are able to identify
one or two factors and assumed that those are the
responsible for the results achieved or the problem
arose, because of that they
implement simple polices for solving a
problem or reaching their goal, and
very often those polices have the
opposite effect desired, the
problem becomes worse, the business
fails, and so on. |
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A primary reason for this is policy resistance, namely other
people or influences in
the system act to counteract
the simple changes instituted
and the intended results. One good example
is, lowering the price of goods does
not necessarily increase sales for
a certain business,
because competing businesses
lower their own prices
in response. |
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Forster created the System Dynamics methodology to aid
in improving
decision making and
policy planning, an approach for analyzing complex systems
to include all the relevant
factor-effect relationships, and more
important, time delays
and feedback loops in those
systems which account for most of
their unexpected behavior,
he originally applied System
Dynamics to modeling
and problem solving in
industrial sectors then
gradually, he applied it
to social issues such as economics, crime and
health then later to the physical and
biological sciences such as
ecology. |
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The evolution and rapid progress of microcomputers late 1970s
and in the early
1980s. made System Dynamics modeling
possible for the majority of the
people with the help of an inexpensive microcomputer
instead of a limited users most of
them belonging to Universities and Research
Centers depending upon expensive Mainframes.
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Computer Simulation
and
Modeling became a fact and can
be published, Application of System Dynamics modeling started to wide spread
and to cover other varieties of academic subjects including Biology,
Economics, Ecology, Health and Medical Sciences,
Mathematics, Physics, Psychology.
During past few
years more powerful
System
Dynamics Modeling and Simulation Software were created and developed,
they are working under both
Windows and
Macintosh Platforms. |
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