What ventana models do:

Ventana models improve performance by helping organizations make smarter choices. They leverage the collective intelligence of an organization's people and experience to determine which choices are most likely to improve performance, and why.

By converting mountains of information into clear, compelling stories rooted firmly in both data and experience, they help decision maker to understand the best path forward, and to communicate that path to the organization.

How is this possible? The outcomes of an organization's actions are determined by predicatable reactions and by unpredicatable influences. Ventana models help decision – makers to manage both.

Predictable Reactions

Organizations are deeply familiar with scores of predictable,cause-and-effect phenomena in their businesses, many of which are obvious: growing the customer base raises demand for service.

Hiring more people raises payroll expenses. Diverting resourses to one area removes resourses from another. A customer who buys a product may not need another one until the first one wears out.

Each of these is straightforward, but two difficulties aries when trying to consider all such effects at once.

First, there are too many of them. The human brain juggles only so much at one time, raising the possibility of over looking one or another of these effects.

Second, when multiple factors are interacting t influence results, it is very wasy to believe that the root driver of performance is one of thing when in fact it is another.

Ventana models help humans manage this complexity. Ventana models track multiple, interacting influences with ease, and ventana techniques triangulate among data, expert knowledge, and casual models to detect logical gaps and conflicts. Ventana tools move organization from intial questions and hypotheses to clear, winning choices.

Unpredictable Influences

Organization must cope with an unpredictable environment. Economic, competitive, regulatory, natural, and other factors buffets plans and effect results. Ventana models calculate the effects of these influnces across their full range of possible values, not just the historically experienced range. This addresses two important problems.

First, history may not be predictive of future conditions. second, humans tend to underestimate risk. Ventana models also account for interactions among uncertain influences, rather that assuming risks are uncorrelated. This often greatly effects results, and is crucial for early detection of brittle or vulnerable busness structures. Rather than averaging together extreme opportunities with extreme vulnerabilities, or ignoring them due to low probability, ventana models outline the whole range of possibilites, uniquely identifying both threats and leverage and explaning the odds behind them.

In addition to unpredictable external effects, all quantitative conclusions formed from models and data contain some inherent uncertainty. This is because both models and data can be incomplete or inaccurate. Ventana triangulation techniques avoid single-source bais and sift for corroborated, reliable estimates, reducing this analytical uncertainty to a minimum. The effects of data noise and model approximation and reported in the model output, and indicate the value of future information.

The resulting set of possible futures is often very different from current planning. By considering the correct range of potential outcomes, clients can evaluate their risk in advance, to design strategies that exploit the odds and defend against shocks.

In the end, people, not models, are responsible for decisions. But people with good models make better decisions than people without good models. In fact, that is the definition of a good model: one that helps people and organizations succeed.

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